Case Study: Business Profit Forecasting by MDS

This is a case study of business profit forecasting carried out by business data analysts at MDS which shows a 99.95% data match (average prediction) rate  for their proprietary forecasting software - MDSForeCast 2.1. 

You can get a PDF copy of the original study via 1-click direct download from RapidShare (here).



Overview:

•  Forecasting is when businesses try to "see the future" of their business performance indicators (especially profit) by submitting historical performance data to business data analysts for statistical analysis
• Numerous approaches to forecasting exist from a statistical point of view, and there are many proprietary solutions like the one offered by MDS which combine a variety of approaches to ensure best results for businesses.
• This study involved 40 years of randomly generated historical business data and yielded the following results:
• 99.95% data match rate (prediction rate) for forecast data (very impressive), which proves that the solution is highly recommended for business planning measures, which require very high accuracy.

Details:

Results are usually presented as a time series (value-time plot) or a growth patterns (ordered data). Some case study results are presented below:



Figure: Growth analysis showing 98.32% data match



 Figure: Time-series plot of forecast data vs. actual data showing 93.84% data match

 

Figure: Total profit analysis: Average Real Profit vs. Forecast

• To be considered accurate, forecast values should APPROACH the real value and not exceed it; this is because in planning its always better to set lower limits and enjoy any excesses than set higher and come to a loss.
• The AVERAGE data match rate of the MDSForeCast 2.1 system is 99.95%, meaning it APPROACHES the real value as close as possible.

What is most amazing is that these studies were conducted on completely random data and would have been even more accurate for ordered business data.

Business profit forecasting is very useful for business planning purposes and tends to be expensive because of the time and computing requirements for making a forecast. Also because businesses need this data to be as ACCURATE as possible, analysts spare no expense to ensure that reports generated can be followed to the letter.

Businesses seeking cheaper (less accurate, but also useful) solutions, or new businesses without enough historical data (at least 2 years) can consider Profit Simulation services instead.

MDS offers a FREE Profit Simulation service for businesses. Fill this form to get started: http://goo.gl/rzPtm

MDS also offers paid business forecasting services. MDS rates are some of the cheapest you will find for a 99.95% accuracy forecasting service. Learn more at http://www.montydimkpa.com/Forecasting

Until next time,

Best,

M.